TMUA October 2026 Prediction: A Calculation-Heavy Paper 1, a Logic-Leaning Paper 2, and How to Use Your Last Days

Our prediction for the 2026 October TMUA: Paper 1 will carry a heavy calculation load and be the harder of the two papers. Paper 2 will lean on logic, but once you are used to it, it is not as hard as it looks. We got there by reading the 2024 and 2025 global papers side by side.

1. What We See in the 2024 and 2025 Papers

• Paper 1 is heavy on calculation. Surds, indices, fractions and long algebraic manipulation fill a large share of it. The method is usually clear, and the cost is in doing the arithmetic accurately and fast. It was heavy in both 2024 and 2025.
• Paper 2 leans on logic. Necessary and sufficient conditions, quantifiers (“for all x”), converse statements and counterexamples. It feels unfamiliar the first time. But it is a style you can learn, and it rewards getting used to it more than raw difficulty.

You can check this yourself: do the 2024 and 2025 past papers back to back and see where your time goes.

2. Our Prediction for 2026

• Paper 1 will be the harder paper, and the one where time runs short. Surds, indices, fractions and long algebra will fill a large share of it, at about the level of 2024 and 2025. The difficulty will be accuracy at speed, not a hidden trick. Expect functions to carry much of it: exponentials, logs, and using derivatives to count real solutions.
• Paper 2 will be the lighter paper. It will lean on logic, and necessary and sufficient conditions will make up a large share of it, along with quantifiers, counterexamples and the occasional “find the error in this argument”. If you have practised that style, it will be where you pick marks back up.
• A few questions will repeat, but not many. Pearson is building up a question bank, so you will meet some repeated questions. The number will be limited, and you should not expect much overlap with last year.

3. Oxford Has Moved From the MAT to the TMUA

Oxford has announced that applicants for Mathematics, Computer Science and the joint courses take the TMUA from this admissions round, and the MAT no longer runs. Oxford also notes that the mathematical content the two tests cover is very similar.

So the 2026 TMUA cohort contains many candidates who would previously have sat the MAT. Our judgment is that the people taking the test have changed, not the paper. We expect the question style to stay the TMUA’s own, and we do not expect it to move toward the MAT.

4. What to Practise Before You Sit

1. Practise Paper 1 under time pressure. Set a per-question budget, skip anything over it, and come back. See our skipping strategy guide.
2. Drill logic, not just algebra. Necessary and sufficient conditions, converse statements, and counterexamples. See Paper 2 diagnostics.
3. Do exact arithmetic with fractions and surds by hand until it is fast and reliable.
4. Do a full timed paper in the last days, not a pile of untimed questions: the past papers.

5. Where to Start in the 2024 and 2025 Papers

If you have limited time, these are the questions we would do first. The 2021–2023 papers are the official UAT-UK papers. The 2024 and 2025 papers are MioMath reconstructions, and UK and CN are the two 2025 versions. P1(5, 6) means Paper 1, questions 5 and 6.

6. A Word on Mock Papers

Most of the mainstream mock papers out there are harder than the real papers, and you do not need them before the exam. If you do try one and score badly, do not be afraid and do not let it knock your confidence. A low score on a mock says little about how you will do on the real paper.

7. If You Sit in January

January 2027 results are reported on the same scale as October. See October vs January for how the two sittings compare.